(Al Jazeera Media Network) The United States’ continuing military buildup in the Gulf risks a “dangerous” confrontation with Iran, U.S.-based analysts have said, as the two countries continue to struggle to resolve their issues through diplomacy.
The Pentagon announced this week that thousands of U.S. troops were being deployed to the region to help protect shipping lanes, such as those in the Strait of Hormuz, from Iranian “harassment”.
The Associated Press news agency reported last week that the U.S. military was considering placing armed personnel on commercial ships going through the strait – the main entryway into the Gulf – in what would be an unprecedented action.
That report prompted an angry response from Iran, which said it would equip its Revolutionary Guard navy with drones and missiles in response to the U.S. moves.
Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank in Washington, DC, said U.S. President Joe Biden is doubling down on his predecessor Donald Trump’s “failed policy” of economic warfare and escalation against Iran.
U.S.-Iranian ties have been increasingly strained since 2018, when Trump nixed a multilateral nuclear deal that saw Tehran scale back its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions against its economy.
“The track record of this policy – not just in the past five years but for decades – has been that it will lead to a cycle of mutual escalation, where the U.S. will escalate and Iran will counter-escalate. So, this is very dangerous,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.
Over the past few months, the U.S. has accused Iran of seizing several international ships going through the Gulf.
But analysts highlighted that Tehran’s recent behaviour in the strategic waters came after Washington confiscated an Iranian oil tanker as part of its sanctions-enforcement push.
The vessel is currently off the coast of Texas, though several U.S. media outlets have reported that American oil companies are refusing to bid for the confiscated oil out of fear of Iranian retaliation against their own ships in the Gulf.
Both countries are trying to show they can retaliate against aggressive moves by the other party, said Toossi, who warned that the U.S. and Iran are on an “escalation ladder” that could lead to conflict.
The prospect of diplomacy has dimmed this year.
Biden came into office in early 2021 on a promise to revive the Iran nuclear accord – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
But as several rounds of indirect negotiations failed to restore the pact, Washington continued to enforce its sanctions against Tehran, and piled on more penalties.
Publicized JCPOA talks were eventually put on hold, and attempts to restore them were made more complicated by an Iranian crackdown on anti-government protesters, as well as by accusations that Tehran was providing Moscow with drones for use in Ukraine.
