The BIG boss at BIG Media messaged me the other day looking for a story to wrap up 2024, perhaps giving our readers something to think about over the holidays when we (at least for those of us without small children or grandchildren) have a few spare moments to reflect.
He suggested that I summarize some of the biggest lessons learned from my research this past year.
As a consultant, I research a lot of different things – so I made some very interesting (to me, at least) discoveries about helium reservoirs, the progress of research funds through federal bureaucracies, how much of our hard-earned geological knowledge from decades past is being forgotten as the oil and gas industry changes, and how much lithium resource it actually takes to make an economic prospect.
But those are pretty narrow subjects that interest only specific people. Studies of energy and energy transition interest a lot more people, as energy is important to us all.
So, what did I learn in my research on energy that is particularly striking or impactful?
There is a lot to choose from. I recently completed work on a major update to my MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) “21st Century Energy Transition – How do We Make it Work?”, which will be released next week.
The progress and changes in energy over the two years since the course was first released are substantial – improved technologies, new applications for alternative energy sources and energy storage, and the beginnings of a renaissance of nuclear power generation.
But the fundamentals remain the same. People around the world prioritize energy security – affordable, available, and adequate energy supply – above all else. As a result, energy demand continues to rise in all sectors – fossil fuels, nuclear, renewables, energy storage, electrical grids. You name the energy entity, it’s growing.
Many people also want to minimize environmental impacts of growing energy production – particularly those of us who have had energy security all our lives and so have the luxury of worrying about other things.
Supplying 8 billion+ people with energy security while minimizing harm to the environment is a big and complex problem, which is why it gets so much attention. The best solutions depend on where you live – folks in Iceland can rely on geothermal and hydro for their electricity, people in France rely on nuclear, the Danes get a lot of electricity from wind (with diverse backups when the wind is not blowing), while many people around the globe burn coal and natural gas for their power. And of course, industrial processes, transportation, and home heating – those are largely oil and gas almost everywhere.
I have discovered – and I guess I knew it before, but it was really hammered home in 2024 – that some people think that energy is actually pretty simple, and that their own preferred (and usually narrow) solutions are all we need.
- Some build elaborate models to demonstrate that humanity can be powered entirely by wind, water, and solar in the near future, ignoring all the financial, engineering, and social challenges that make building that much infrastructure completely impossible in any reasonable timeframe (100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World).
- Some insist that there is not actually an energy transition – that we can burn fossil fuels forever and that greenhouse gas emissions are little more than “plant food”. Some of these folks get hung up on the term “energy transition”, feeling that it has been co-opted by the dreaded greens. But they don’t seem to understand that we need to work on real energy alternatives today so that humanity can survive past the day the oil and gas finally run out.
- Many policymakers enact bans or bottlenecks on existing energy supplies without the faintest idea of what will take their place as demand continues to grow and supply fails to keep pace. Several jurisdictions have banned natural gas in new home and business construction, while others have forbidden natural gas suppliers from expanding service into high-demand areas (Application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity for the Okanagan Capacity Upgrade Project).
- Some propose radical new ideas, such as drilling wells to tap into huge quantities of naturally occurring hydrogen, without seeming to realize the reason we aren’t doing that already is that those wonderful non-polluting hydrogen resources almost certainly do not exist. But the hype certainly does. Hydrogen: the ultimate path to net zero, or a whole lot of wishful thinking
- Many just criticize without suggesting any constructive solutions, raining derision upon those who do not agree with them, or accusing them of immorality and evil. In other words, it is all “Big Oil’s” fault, so we need to take them court. Exactly how taking to court companies that supply 80% of the world’s energy needs addresses energy security is not explained.
So, in 2024 I learned, or at least it was reinforced by my research, that many people sadly lack energy literacy – and it is costing us all big time.
Huge amounts of time and money are wasted impeding development of essential oil and gas resources – such as Western Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, which was finally built after years of delay and billions of dollars wasted because opponents used every “tool in the toolbox” to try to stop it, all while global oil demand continued to grow.
Even bigger dollars are being flushed away in the United States as proponents of alternative energy sources rush to hand out massive government funding without appropriate oversight before the new president comes in with an equally poor understanding of energy realities, looking to kibosh everything to do with said alternatives.
There is so much to do. Energy security is failing as electricity prices increase dramatically in many jurisdictions, and as the number of people around the world without access to adequate electricity begins to grow again after several years of shrinking.
We need better energy literacy. With that should come the realization that we need good energy policy to guide energy security and reduction of energy poverty. We cannot let extreme, simplistic viewpoints dictate the most complex and pressing issues of the day.
That is what I learned in 2024.
